Can the tribunal set a higher rent than I proposed?

Not for a notice served on or after 1 May 2026. The tribunal decides the open-market rent, and the tenant pays whichever is lower: that figure or the rent in your notice. Under the old rules it could go higher, and it did in 84 of the 1,185 decisions on older notices published since January 2025.

How often does the tribunal cut the rent a landlord proposed?

In the decisions published on GOV.UK from January 2025 to October 2026, the tribunal set a lower rent in 69% of cases on notices served before 1 May 2026 and in 59% of cases on notices served from that date. The newer figure rests on 148 decisions, so it is early.

Does the size of the increase make a difference?

Yes, steadily. Where the landlord proposed up to 5% more, 55% kept their full figure or got more. From 15% upwards, roughly three in four were cut. That is across 1,269 decisions that stated both rents and set a new one.

What evidence should a landlord bring to a rent tribunal?

Rents that similar homes nearby have actually let for, with the address, bedrooms and date of each, plus dated photos of the property. Landlords who gave achieved lettings were cut less deeply when they were cut, though they also tended to ask for smaller increases, so the evidence may not be the whole reason.

When does the new rent start after a tribunal decision?

From the first rent period that begins on or after the tribunal’s decision, or from the date in your notice if that is later. It is never backdated. If that would cause the tenant undue hardship, the tribunal can set a later date, within two months of its decision.

Rent Tribunal Tracker: what 1,528 rent decisions show landlords

Free tool: Rent increase calculator →When can I next increase the rent?

When a tenant takes a rent increase to the First-tier Tribunal, the size of the increase is the best guide to what happens. Ask for up to 5% more and about half of landlords keep their full figure. From 15% upwards, about three in four are cut.

The short version

The bigger the increase you propose, the likelier the tribunal is to cut it.
On notices served since 1 May 2026, 32% of landlords kept their full figure, against 18% before. Cuts are smaller too. That rests on 148 decisions so far.
Deductions for condition are common: missing carpets, curtains or white goods, or repairs left undone.
Many landlords bring no evidence at all. Rents that similar homes actually let for are the evidence to bring.

This is the first Rent Tribunal Tracker. It counts every market rent decision the First-tier Tribunal (Property Chamber) has published on GOV.UK with a decision date from 1 January 2025 to 10 October 2026: 1,528 of them, all in England. I'll update it each month as new decisions come out. How the figures were put together is at the end.

One thing to keep in mind throughout. Of those 1,528 decisions, only 148 are on notices served under the new rules, from 1 May 2026. Decisions reach GOV.UK weeks after they're made, and most of what has come out since May is the old system clearing its queue. So the old-rules figures are solid, and the new-rules figures are an early read.

The bigger the increase, the likelier a cut

The tribunal doesn't ask whether your figure is reasonable. It works out its own open-market rent for the home, and on a notice served since 1 May 2026 your tenant pays whichever is lower: that figure or the rent in your notice. So any proposal that sits above the tribunal's view of the market gets cut, however modest it looks to you.

There's no cliff edge. The chance of a cut rises steadily, and from the 15 to 20% band upwards it stays at three in four or more. Even at up to 5%, the tribunal cut 45% of the proposals it decided.

A cut rarely sends the rent back where it started, though. Landlords who proposed 30 to 50% more came away with a median increase of 23%. Those who proposed more than 50% got a median of 40%. The tribunal is setting a market rent, and where the old rent had fallen far behind the market, the market rent is still well above it.

Under the new rules, more landlords keep their figure

Before 1 May 2026, the tribunal could set a rent above what the landlord proposed, and it did in 84 of the 1,185 decisions on older notices. It can't do that now. On the other hand, more landlords keep exactly what they asked for.

On notices served from 1 May 2026, the tribunal confirmed the landlord's figure in 47 of 148 decisions, or 32%. On older notices it was 18%. And when it did cut, the median cut was 5.5% of the proposed rent, against 9.3% before. In pounds, that's about £100 a month in both groups.

Treat those as early figures. 148 decisions is a small base, and the cases decided first may not look like the ones still waiting. The count is climbing quickly, though: 63 new-rules decisions were made in September alone. The tracker will show whether the gap holds.

Twelve of the 148 ended without a rent being set at all, because the tribunal found the notice invalid or that it couldn't hear the case. A notice with the wrong dates or on the wrong form gets you nothing, and you start the two months again. The Form 4A guide goes through the dates and the form section by section.

Condition costs landlords about £100 a month

Many decisions start from what a similar home in good order would let for, with carpets, curtains and white goods, and then take an amount off for what this one lacks or what needs repair. On older notices, 64% of the decisions that set a rent made a deduction like this, with a median of £137 a month. On notices from 1 May 2026 it was 39%, with a median of £100.

Where a decision states the amount, the middle half of deductions run from £50 to £250 a month.

This is the part you control before you serve. Walk round the property first. If there's no fridge, no curtains or worn-out carpet, or a repair you've been putting off, either deal with it or set your figure for the home as it is. Take dated photos either way, because the tribunal may decide on the papers without visiting.

Bring what similar homes actually let for

About half of decisions say the evidence was missing or thin. On notices from 1 May 2026 it was 58%. Plenty of landlords turned up with nothing, and so did tenants: in 47% of decisions that set a rent, the tenant gave no comparable evidence. When neither side brings any, the tribunal relies on its own knowledge of the area.

Landlords who brought achieved lettings, meaning rents that other homes had actually let for, did a little better:

The landlord's strongest evidence, and the result
Landlord's evidence	Decisions	Kept full figure	Median cut, if cut	Median increase asked
Achieved lettings	282	31%	5.8%	14.3%
Asking rents from adverts	346	27%	8.1%	18.2%
No evidence	352	27%	10.8%	16.7%

Read the last column before the others. Landlords with achieved lettings also asked for smaller increases, so some of their better result may come from that. The figures show the two go together. They don't prove the evidence made the difference.

Still, the reasoning holds. An asking rent shows what a landlord hoped for. An achieved rent shows what a tenant agreed to pay, and that's closer to what the tribunal is trying to find. Ask a local letting agent for recent let prices on similar homes, and note the address, bedrooms, condition and date of each, so the tribunal can compare like with like.

Before you serve Form 4A

Check your figure against what similar homes nearby have let for recently. Above about 15%, expect the tribunal to cut it if your tenant challenges.
Walk round the property. Fit what's missing or fix what's broken, or price the home as it is.
Take dated photos of each room.
Work out your dates with the rent increase calculator, so the notice can't fail on timing.
Keep the notice, proof that you served it, your comparables and the photos together in the property's file.

If a challenge does come, the old rent continues until the tribunal decides, and the new rent then starts from the first rent period that begins on or after the decision, or from the date in your notice if that's later. It isn't backdated. HouseFile keeps each property's documents in one place, so the notice and the evidence behind it are there when the tribunal asks.

How the figures were put together

The decisions are the ones listed on GOV.UK's Residential property tribunal decisions page under market rent: case types MNR and MRA, under sections 13 and 14 of the Housing Act 1988. Fair rent cases under the Rent Act 1977 are left out. The count covers decision dates from 1 January 2025 to 10 October 2026.

Software read the figures from each decision's text, and a sample was checked against the decisions by hand. A decision counts as new rules when the landlord's notice was served on or after 1 May 2026, whatever date it was decided. 195 decisions don't state a notice date, mostly short register entries that give only the rent, so they're left out of the before and after comparisons. The figures by size of increase use the 1,269 decisions that state both rents and set a new one.

These are decisions on challenges that reached the tribunal. Most rent increases are never challenged, so this shows what happens when one is, and says nothing about how often that is.

Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

This article is for general information only and does not constitute legal advice.